China’s new energy vehicle development plan and industry development trend

Since the 12th Five Year Plan, China’s new energy vehicle market has experienced a rapid growth process, the development of new energy vehicle industry has entered a growth period, and the production and sales of vehicles have increased significantly. From 2011 to 2016, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased from less than 5000 to 500000, and the ownership increased from 10000 to 1 million. In five years, the output and sales volume have increased 100 times, accounting for 50% of the global production and sales volume of new energy vehicles. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has exceeded 1.8% of the total sales volume by 2016. In 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 794000 and 777000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.8% and 53.3% respectively. The market share is 2.7%, an increase of 30.9% over the previous year.

In 2001, in the major special plan for electric vehicles, the state established a “three vertical and three horizontal” electric vehicle research and development pattern from the top-level design. The “three verticals” are hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles;

“Three horizontal” refers to the multi-energy powertrain control system, the motor and its control system, and the battery and its management system. The construction of the “three vertical and three horizontal” electric vehicle research and development pattern is conducive to ensuring that the development and evolution of pure electric vehicle technology follows the correct path.

The development model of China’s new energy vehicles is based on pure electric vehicles. On this basis, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell hybrid vehicles are developed, and finally breakthroughs in conventional hybrid technology and full-power fuel cell technology. With regard to the development of the technical route, the trend of “three-in-one” is gradually becoming apparent, and the products have made certain technological progress in various aspects such as performance, cost, and safety. With the further strengthening of electrification, the relationship between automobiles and energy, electric power and other industries is getting closer. Energy storage and V2G technology will become the next development focus. In addition, China’s research on charging technology and infrastructure planning are also constantly developing.

BAIC New Energy plans to use three bases as the basis to achieve the annual production and sales of 500,000 new energy vehicles at the end of the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, forming a production capacity of more than 800,000 vehicles; BYD has realized its development plan for new energy vehicles by deploying the upstream lithium battery industry, and started building a power battery production line in Qinghai in 2017. It is expected to build a production capacity of 10GW·h in 2020 and achieve a sales target of 600,000 vehicles; Chery will develop brand-new pure electric vehicles and hybrid models in 2019. The battery energy density is planned to reach 300W·h/kg or more, and the sales target of 200,000 new energy vehicles will be achieved by 2020.

The three major brands of Changan, Geely and Dongfeng will also increase their investment in new energy vehicle projects. Among them, Changan Automobile plans to invest 18 billion yuan in two technology platforms of pure electric and hybrid power, to achieve the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 will reach 400,000; Geely Automobile has a production capacity of more than 1.3 million vehicles under construction, and plans to realize that new energy vehicles will account for more than 90% of its total sales by 2020; Dongfeng Motor will achieve a 15%-18% market share in 2020, and its new energy vehicle sales will strive to reach 300,000 units.

GAC Group and SAIC Group will continue to increase the size of the new energy vehicle industry. They will invest 4.694 billion yuan and a total of 20 billion yuan in new energy vehicle projects, respectively, and plan to achieve the production and sales targets of 200,000 and 600,000 new energy vehicles in 2020.